Woolly worms (above) are the official winter weather forecaster. They become Isabella Tiger Moths (below).

The official winter weather forecaster has predicted a mild winter this year.

“We predicted for this winter some periods with cold, below freezing temperatures, but overall temperatures that are going to be average or above normal, which means we’re going to have a mild winter,” Dewayne Trail with the UT/TSU Agriculture Extension Office.

But Trail isn’t the official forecaster, he’s only an interpreter. The official winter weather forecaster is the woolly worm, also called a woolly bear or fuzzy bear.

“Most popular, regardless of where you live, is the wooly worms,” Trail said. Woolly worms tend to be 80 percent accurate in their prediction of winter weather, he added.

Folklore says that if the woolly worms are abundant, slow-moving, have thicker coats and black bands are wider than the central rust colored band, the winter will be bad.

“We have seen very little wooly worm movement to this point and they’ve been moving quickly and the color pattern supports having a mild winter weather period,” Trail said.

But don’t take the woolly worms word for it, there are many other folklore predictors to look to for a winter forecast.

Trail said other folklore predictors include an early killing frost, the number of August fogs, the amount of mast – nuts and berries – on trees and shrubs, the thickness of corn husks and even spiders.

“The average date of that first killing frost is Oct. 22 and we typically have several light frosts before that,” Trail said. Yet, the warm fall hasn’t produced even one frost yet and there isn’t one coming in the near future.

As for nuts and berries, there aren’t many of them either.

“They say if you have a lot of mast, or berries or nuts, it’s Mother Nature’s way of preparing for a long hard winter,” Trail said.

Trail also checks persimmon seeds after the first fall frost. He cuts a persimmon seed from the narrow side and looks at the kernel.

“If the kernel is shaped like a knife, look for a cold, windy winter. If the kernel is shaped like a spoon, look for a wet, snowy winter,” Trail explained. “If the kernel is shaped like a fork, look for a mild winter.”

So, when the first frost finally comes, look to the persimmon for another winter forecast.


All together, Trail said, the lack of mast on trees, low spider population, average cornhusk thickness, late killing frost and, of course, the woolly worms predict a very mild winter for Rutherford County.

Michelle Willard can be contacted at 869-0816 or mwillard@murfreesboropost.com.