When all is said and done, today's modern and far more scientific polls are right more often than they are wrong. Polling in 1948 (when Truman defeated Dewey) and in 1916 when Woodrow Wilson won on a soon to be shelved "he kept us out of war" campaign, things were far different than they are today. While pollsters (just like weathermen, physicians and so many others dealing in inexact sciences) still make mistakes, they are right far more often than they are wrong.
The caveat here: It is far too early to predict who is going to win in 2012, especially when we can only guess who the candidates might be.
Larry, thanks for what you do, making us think. What a unique idea in this political climate.
Much can happen between now and Presidential Election time. 2012 Election year is close but what happens between now and then is still in the crystal ball and probably will decide who will be the next President.