| Economy, jobs top list of voter concerns, MT Poll said |
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By: TMP Reports
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Posted: Monday, September 29, 2008 2:10 pm
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Next week’s presidential debate in Nashville will bring senators Barack Obama and John McCain to the Democratic capital of a Republican state, the latest MTSU Poll suggests.
The poll also finds that Tennesseans’ concern about the economy and jobs has reached an all-time high, while their satisfaction with national conditions has hit an all-time low, and their satisfaction with state conditions has reached its lowest point in two years.
Click here to see how Tennessee's congress members voted on bail-out bill.
In the race for president, McCain leads Obama by 48 percent to 36 percent statewide, a double-digit lead with just 10 percent undecided and few Tennesseans inclined to change their minds, according to the poll. The Republican lead grows among the state’s likely voters, with 55 percent favoring McCain and 35 percent preferring Obama.
But the poll finds that Nashville/Davidson County, site of the Oct. 7 debate at Belmont University, is significantly more favorable toward Obama than the rest of the state.
Gordon comments on bail-out vote.
“McCain leads Obama in Tennessee as he has since at least a year ago,” said Jason Reineke, associate director of the MTSU Poll. “But Nashville should feel like friendly ground to Sen. Obama. In a way, both candidates will have a home field advantage during the debate.”
Poll results also indicate that the McCain campaign has enjoyed modest success at attracting supporters of former Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
One in four Tennesseans who voted for the junior senator from New York in the state’s Democratic presidential primary say that they would now vote for McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, in the general election.
However, 56 percent of those who report that they voted for Clinton in the primary now plan to vote for Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joe Biden. The rest of Clinton’s supporters remain undecided at this point or say they would vote for someone other than McCain or Obama.
Not surprisingly, economic concerns weigh heavily on Tennesseans’ minds during the run-up to the election. More than half (53 percent) of Tennesseans name the economy and job issues as the No. 1 problem facing the nation. Economic concerns also top the list of problems Tennesseans see facing the state, and measures of Tennesseans’ satisfaction with state and national conditions have hit record lows, although differences by party are sharp.
“The differences between how Tennessee Democrats and Republicans view the current state of affairs are stark enough to suggest that members of the two parties inhabit completely different perceptual worlds,” said Bob Wyatt, director of MTSU’s Office of Communication Research, which sponsors the MTSU Poll.
In other poll findings:
- Republican incumbent Sen. Lamar Alexander outpolls Democratic challenger Bob Tuke 50 percent to 26 percent among likely voters in Tennessee’s race for U.S. Senate, but about a fourth (23 percent) say they aren’t yet sure whom they favor.
- More than half of Tennesseans rate George W. Bush as poor or worse compared to other U.S. presidents. A quarter of respondents call him the worst U.S. president ever.
- In addition to the economy, Tennesseans name energy and the environment, taxes, and education as the issues that most affect them personally. The hot-button issues of abortion and gay marriage rank at the bottom of the list.
- In the wake of “Pulpit Freedom Sunday,” A majority of Tennessee evangelicals think churches should express their political views.
The current poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 15-27 by students in the College of Mass Communication at Middle Tennessee State University. Students interviewed 635 people age 18 or older chosen at random from the state population. Of these, 357 were designated as “likely voters” because they said they had voted in the state’s 2006 U.S. Senate race, were presently registered to vote and planned to cast a vote for president in November.
The poll has an estimated error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Theoretically, this means that a sample of this size should produce a statistical portrait of the population within four percentage points 95 out of 100 times.
For 10 years, the Survey Group at MTSU has been providing independent, nonpartisan, and unbiased public opinion data regarding major social, political, and ethical issues affecting Tennessee. The poll began in 1998 as a measure of public opinion in the 39 counties comprising Middle Tennessee and began measuring public opinion statewide in 2001.
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