ERIN EDGEMON, Business Editor
Posted: Thursday, September 24, 2009 1:46 pm

The Middle Tennessee economy will recover from the recession by 2014, predicted a local economist at Thursday’s MTSU Economic Outlook Conference.

David Penn, director of the MTSU Business and Economic Research Center, said it will take this long for businesses to create enough jobs for the ones lost and for the growing population.

Unemployment, which is currently 10.7 percent in Tennessee, should begin to decline in the next three to four months, he said.

“I think in the next three to four months we will see some job growth,” Penn said.

By the end of the year we will see some improvement in job loss, he said. Middle Tennessee should see increases in manufacturing and construction jobs by the first of next year.

Right now, unemployment continues to climb, but it is still substantially lower than in 1982 when the jobless rate was at 12.4 percent.

Penn said hiring in housing construction and manufacturing will lead the region out of the recession.

He said Middle Tennessee hasn’t been hit the hardest in the nation by the recession, but it has been greatly hurt because of the prevalence of manufacturing in the region.

Claims for unemployment insurance are beginning to come down, Penn reported.

“Claims peaked at 14,000 (a week) in January an all-time high,” he said. Claims are now around 11,000 a week.

•••

C. Dowd Ritter, president and chief executive officer of Regions Financial Corp. and Regions Bank, lead off the conference speaking of what he called The Great Recession that the nation is currently in.

“(The recession) is already twice as deep and twice as long as any other recession the country has experienced,” he said.

“All across America people have experienced it or know someone who has,” Ritter added later.

Foreclosures rose more than 30 percent over the last year and unemployment rose dramatically, Ritter said.

He said today’s generation will begin to act like those who went through The Great Depression and become a generation of savers.

“Today, I think we have come full circle,” Ritter said. “Until 2030 we will become a generation of savers.”

But, he said the groundwork for recovery is in place, he said.

Housing prices, which have been declining, are now showing improvement.

Ten percent of Americans have lost their job but 90 percent of Americans are about to increase their spending.

Ritter said the jobless rate will begin to come down quickly in Middle Tennessee then the rest of the country because of the diverse economic base.

“Middle Tennessee will lead the way in the economic recovery,” he said.

Erin Edgemon can be reached at 869-0812 and at eedgemon@murfreesboropost.com.